Business
Texas governor race tightens in prediction markets, but Abbott remains favored
Prediction markets still show the Republican incumbent favored to win a fourth term, but the odds have narrowed in recent weeks.
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Prediction
Business
Prediction market traders now see nearly 75% chance of Democrats winning the Senate
Just a day before the midterms, Kalshi traders give Democrats a 74% chance of controlling the Senate.
Business
Gamble on democracy: Inside suspicious election-contracts trading on prediction markets
CNBC examines unusual price spikes in election prediction markets and how low-volume contracts can be moved by relatively small trades.
Business
One week out, prediction markets see Democrats as favored to sweep Congress
Event contract exchanges see a two-in-three chance that Democrats take control of both the House and Senate.
Business
Prediction market traders say an Anthropic IPO is near-certain this year after company filed with SEC
Anthropic on Monday filed its Form S-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Business
Lula wins Brazil runoff after prediction markets favored Bolsonaro
While prediction market odds pointed to a clear Bolsonaro victory, Lula emerged the winner in a tight race.
Business
NBA enters prediction markets with Kalshi, Polymarket partnerships
The league also inked a memorandum of understanding with the CFTC, the federal regulator of prediction markets.
Business
CrowdStrike CEO's alarming prediction — plus, the sell-off spreads beyond tech
Every weekday, the Investing Club releases the Homestretch; an actionable afternoon update just in time for the last hour of trading.
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Business
Prediction-market odds rise for Marine Le Pen in France 2027 presidential race as protests roil nation
Speculators on Kalshi see higher odds that Marine Le Pen will win France 2027 presidential contest amid growing unrest in the country.
Business
Prediction market odds on Tesla-SpaceX merger are above 50% for early 2027
Kalshi odds for a Tesla-SpaceX merger rose above 50% for early 2027 as Barclays outlined how a deal could work.
Business
Blockchain.com seeks U.S. approval for prediction markets, crypto derivatives trading
Blockchain.com is seeking CFTC designation and registration to offer U.S. event contracts and cryptocurrency derivatives.
Science
A quantum prediction from 1931 just came to life
Nearly a century after physicist Hans Bethe predicted them, scientists have created and directly observed unusual quantum states known as “Bethe strings” in an ultracold gas. By cooling cesium atoms to near absolute zero and trapping them in thousands of tiny one-dimensional tubes, researchers were able to make groups of atoms bind together without ordinary chemical bonds. These strange clusters could contain six or more particles and even collide with one another without falling apart.
Business
NFL tells Supreme Court prediction markets are gambling and should be regulated by the states
In an amicus brief supporting New Jersey regulators in their battle against Kalshi, the NFL argues sports prediction contracts are effectively gambling
Business
House Democrat targets candidate prediction market trades after opponent’s Kalshi penalty
A new bill bans federal candidates from trading prediction market contracts related to their own elections and would result in a fine if violated.
Politics
Burnham rejects Swinney's prediction that he will be 'last prime minister'
John Swinney had referred to Andy Burnham as the "last prime minister".
Business
Prediction market traders think the U.S. added more jobs in September than economists estimate
The higher-than-consensus expectations are a bet that the U.S. had another strong month of job growth.
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Business
CFTC says prediction markets' 'mentions' contracts present a higher risk of manipulation
The announcement comes after reports in August that the agency was conducting an internal review into the event contract type.
Business
Sportsbooks remain king this football season, but upstarts are making a run for the money
"Prediction markets are growing the overall market — at least for now," said Chris Grove, partner emeritus at Eilers & Krejcik Gaming.